Sep 29

iPhone 3G Japan - Sold Out!?!

Before anything else, let me remind you that I strongly believe the iPhone doesn't stand a chance to conquer most Asian markets, especially Japan and China. There are plenty of reasons to say this, but I won't talk about them, because today we're going to be on the other side of the wall. To be more accurate, we'll talk about the (utopic, for me) situation where iPhone 3G, in Japan, will be sold out! Yeah, I know it sounds strange to say that now, but this is it - iPhone 3G, Japan, sold out!

Why am I getting into this? Well, I have no sales data at my disposal every morning, but I know one thing for sure - sometimes, and that is pretty often, analysts are right. Almost every time, when talking about something that already happened, analysts are right, but that depends a lot on the source of the data they are using...

...since a widely publicized report suggested iPhone 3G sales in Japan below half of the initial expectations, but independent data recently gathered and put together shows sales matching initial expectations.

First, the Wall Street Journal claimed the million unit goal in Japan was more than twice the real sales figure, especially because the high price tag and the fear Japanese users have of online commerce. The interesting part is that data came from MM Research Institute, without any confirmation from Softbank, Apple's exclusive iPhone carrier in Japan.

According to an independent market research, things are looking better - "Gerhard Fasol, of telecoms consultancy Eurotechnology Japan, estimates they [Softbank] shifted between 75,000 and 125,000 units in July. At that rate, he thinks 2008 sales could total between 645,000 and 1 million."

Anyway, there's still enough time until the end of the year, and it all depends on the behaviour of the terminal in Japan. I am sure there won't be any problems with the 3G network there, so if the iPhone 3G proves to be a capable device, it may sell as well as expected, or close. If not, then Apple may have one more problem...